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Forecasting Earthquakes

Forecasting Earthquakes

There are a small number of agencies around the world, including Japan and China, that are dedicated to forecasting seismic activity.  Regrettably, the United States has not taken a leading role in the this mission; there are some scientists here in the United States who believe that earthquake prediction is simply not possible. Many scientists and authorities, however, are predicting that a major temblor will occur in California within the next 25-30 years.

There is one particular idea that is currently being researched and it is capturing the interest of members in the scientific community:  conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides.  In fact, one of the predominant forces of the cosmos is gravitational tides and these tides have powers that are strong enough to push fault lines into action, including the fault lines in California that are already under extreme pressure.

Today, the accepted scientific understanding is that while tidal influence is a secondary influence in earthquake activity, it plays a minor role in actually producing earthquakes with the strength to cause injury and destruction.  If one reviews the seismic history recorded in Southern California, there is some interesting data, however, that shows this view may underestimate combined lunar and solar gravitational impacts.

Using relevant data from historical records, scientists are studying the possibility of predicting seismic activity in the future.  Recognizing and analyzing conjoined lunar and solar gravitational effects may potentially be the first step toward a developing a simple seismic warning for residents in California. Based on a review of current records, scientists are looking at dawn and dusk during certain new- and full-moon phases.  It may be possible determine whether  combined solar and lunar gravitational patterns may hold a higher probability for seismic activity along the entire West Coast, including in the Los Angeles area.

Even though accurate earthquake prediction is not currently possible, we do have the power to strengthen commercial properties to hold up to the forces of nature.  While building codes were not as strict in the past when compared to today’s standards, most architects and building engineers believe that it is important to inspect buildings constructed prior to the 1990’s.  Older buildings are often not strong enough to survive the power of even low-level quakes. Commercial property owners should consider strengthening their buildings now – before that “BIG ONE” occurs.

If you own or lease a commercial building that is more than 20 years old that has not yet been strengthened with an earthquake retrofit, consider scheduling a detailed inspection to determine any structural updates and maintenance that is needed NOW – before it is too late!

Earthquake retrofitting is done for many different reasons.  Commercial property owners are responsible for ensuring the safety and security of their building’s employees, tenants, machinery and inventory.  Of course, we all would like to believe that every building in an earthquake danger zone is strong enough to make it through the rocking and rolling of the earth.  Unfortunately, that’s simply not the case.  Since we don’t yet have a way to predict a powerful temblor, it is important to strengthen those older buildings now, rather than waiting.  To find out more about whether your commercial property in the Los Angeles area needs maintenance in order to withstand the impact of the “BIG ONE”, be sure to call Saunders Commercial Earthquake Retrofit Los Angeles today!


Southern California Office

(949) 646-0034

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